Today's NOAA Predictions: HOW Many Storms & Hurricanes?
The new numbers came out this morning....
(WBRZ News 2) NOAA has announced that they are expecting 10-16 named storms, 5-9 hurricanes, and 1-4 major hurricanes during the upcoming 2018 hurricane season, predicting a near- or above-normal season. Dr. Neil Jacobs, Dr. Daniel Kaniewski, and Michael Silah made the announcement at NOAA’s Aircraft Operations Center in Lakeland, Florida. NOAA took this time to also discuss some of this year’s model upgrades, forecast products, and observational enhancements for the 2018 season.
NOAA’s outlook falls in line with the current predictions from CSU and Accuweather, expecting a slightly above average year. They attributed the heightened season to a relatively neutral year in terms of El Niño/La Niña, and warm western tropical Atlantic waters. NOAA did discuss how there may be a weak El Niño setting up toward the end of the season, which could decrease the potential for tropical development, but as of now they are expecting that to occur well after the season has concluded.
CSU’s extended range forecast, which is made two months before the onset of hurricane season, does not have an impeccable track record. Over the last 23 years, they have only correctly predicted the number of hurricanes once, which was in 2008. In the named storms category, CSU’s early forecast has been correct 3 out of 33 years (9% of the time), and has over-predicted that number 17 out of the 33 years (52% of the time). When looking at the August update though, the forecast is much better, correctly predicting above – or below-average seasons about 80% of the time.